Hi there! It’s Julie with Catalyst Realty Collaborative at Ridgeline Real Estate, and I’m here to share the latest insights on the Vermont real estate market. We’ve been tracking some key changes in inventory levels, pricing trends, and opportunities that could impact your plans if you’re considering buying or selling. Let’s dive into what’s happening right now, what it means for the market, and how these trends might influence your next steps.
Understanding Vermont’s Real Estate Inventory Trends
The Five-Year Inventory Trend
Over the past five years, Vermont’s inventory for single-family homes and condos has experienced significant shifts. In a balanced market, where buyers and sellers have equal leverage, inventory levels meet a specific threshold, represented by a blue line on the chart I often share. When inventory falls below that line, the market favors sellers; above it, buyers hold more power. In Vermont, inventory has often been below this balanced level, contributing to a seller’s market where demand outweighs supply.
Current Market Status in Chittenden County
Chittenden County has seen particularly strong seller’s market conditions. For nearly two years, inventory levels have stayed below a one-month supply, meaning homes often sell quickly after they’re listed. This tight supply has intensified competition among buyers, making it challenging to find new listings and secure properties. For those looking to sell, it’s been an ideal time to list, while buyers have needed to act fast and come prepared with strong offers.
Recent Increase in Inventory
Over the past year, we’ve started to see a shift, with inventory increasing by about 20%. Although we’re still in a seller’s market, this increase is helping listings stay on the market a bit longer. For buyers, this means there’s a bit more time to explore options without the intense pressure of competing immediately. Sellers may want to adjust expectations slightly, as homes may take a bit longer to sell compared to the fast-paced sales of recent years.
New Listings and Supply Trends in Vermont’s Housing Market
Decline in New Listings Through 2023
Throughout most of 2023, Vermont saw a decline in new listings, which limited choices for buyers and increased competition. With fewer homes available, many buyers faced a challenging search, often needing to make quick decisions. This tight supply naturally put upward pressure on prices, especially for desirable property types.
Signs of Inventory Uptick in Recent Months
In recent months, however, there’s been a slight uptick in new listings, bringing inventory levels closer to those seen in 2020. While it’s not a huge increase, it’s a positive sign for buyers who now have a few more options than in the peak months of low inventory. For sellers, it means that while demand is still high, the market may be slightly less competitive than it was at its tightest point.
Vermont Real Estate Market Reaction and Buyer Demand
As inventory grows and homes stay on the market longer, buyer demand is starting to align more with the current supply. Sellers may need to plan for slightly longer timelines to secure a sale, creating potential opportunities for buyers to negotiate or take a little extra time to decide. For those looking to sell, setting realistic expectations about market time can help make the process smoother.
How Pricing Trends Have Shifted in Vermont
The Impact of Low Inventory on Pricing
When Vermont’s inventory dropped below a one-month supply, median sales prices surged by around 40%. The limited number of available homes led to heightened competition and often resulted in bidding wars, with many buyers needing to offer above asking price. For sellers, this low-inventory period provided an excellent opportunity to maximize property value, with many homes selling quickly and at a premium.
Pricing Stabilization with Rising Interest Rates
In 2022 and 2023, rising interest rates helped cool off some of the intense buyer activity, bringing a bit more stability to sales prices. While prices haven’t dropped dramatically, the increase in rates helped align pricing more closely with what buyers are able to afford. This means that prices are still relatively high but not climbing as sharply as they were during the peak low-inventory period.
Current Pricing Trends in Vermont’s Market
Recently, we’ve seen prices dip slightly compared to last month and last year, which is a sign of the market leveling out. This could mean a more balanced landscape, where both buyers and sellers have fair opportunities to negotiate and find value. If you’re buying, it’s an encouraging sign; if you’re selling, pricing strategically is more important than ever to attract interest in this slightly steadier market.
Key Market Opportunities for Buyers and Sellers
Impact of Interest Rates on Market Movement
Interest rates play a significant role in shaping buyer and seller behavior. We’re hopeful that rates might drop below 6% soon, which could further stimulate the market and encourage inventory movement. Lower rates would make mortgages more affordable, likely increasing buyer activity and potentially raising demand for listings. If you’re thinking of selling, keeping an eye on rates could help you time your sale to maximize demand.
High Demand for Specific Property Types and Price Points
Certain areas of the market remain especially competitive, particularly single-family homes in the $300K-$500K range. These price points are in high demand, and quality listings in these categories are still scarce. For buyers, staying flexible and open to opportunities within this range may help secure a property in this challenging segment. For sellers, it’s a favorable range for drawing strong buyer interest.
Strategies for Success in a Volatile Market
If you’re planning to buy or sell, understanding your goals in this ever-shifting market is essential. Being prepared with a solid plan and realistic expectations can make a huge difference, whether you’re navigating the buying process or setting a competitive price as a seller. At Catalyst Realty Collaborative, we’re here to help you create strategies that align with your unique needs and ensure you make the most of this dynamic market.
Conclusion
Navigating Vermont’s real estate market can be complex, especially as inventory, pricing, and interest rates shift. Whether you’re considering buying or selling, staying informed about the latest trends can help you make the best decisions. If you have any questions about the Vermont market or want to discuss strategies to make your listing stand out, feel free to reach out. At Catalyst Realty Collaborative, we’re always here to help you achieve your real estate goals!
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